Gameweek 29

Hello everyone!! This is the second week of our Machine Learning Algorithm predictions and there are quite a few changes in the squad due to the double Gameweek (for ManCity and Arsenal).

For now, the coding part for 1 transfer per Gameweek is not integrated, so the algo can make unlimited transfers.

If you are here for the first time, please make sure to read the original post describing in detail the logic to predict top-performing players in the coming Gameweek and selecting the most optimal Fantasy team.

Previous Gameweek 28 Analysis

It’s time to check how our selected team faired in the Gameweek 28.

Let’s have a look at the scorecard:

  • Algorithm: 35 Points
  • Average: 26 Points

This was a low scoring Gameweek as ManCity, Sheff Utd and Arsenal did not have a match. Unfortunately, I have not coded the blank Gameweek module. So, algorithm 5 players from these teams. Even though, the algorithm did well compared to the average points.

The Gameweek 28 rank was 1,407,852 out of 7,450,900 which is around 18 percentile.

Game week 28 selected team Analysis

Predicted Points vs Actual Points

Well, there is a huge difference in predicted points and actual points.

Two matches resulted in unexpected wins,

  • Watford (19th rank) 3 – 0 Liverpool (1st rank)
  • Norwich City (20th rank) 1 – 0 Leicester City (3rd rank)

Liverpool unexpected defeat to Watford took algorithm and everyone by surprise and they are not invincibles anymore. A sigh of relief to Arsenal fans!! The dependable back 3 selected by the algorithm: Alisson, van Dijk and Gomez (didn’t play) collected a total of 2 points.

Other players also have very low scoring games, except Doherty and Deeney who surpassed the predictions by a margin.

  • Doherty scored the opening goal against Tottenham and eventually, Wolves beat Tottenham by 3-2 in an exciting match, and
  • Deeney scored and assisted against Liverpool
web_name position now_cost predicted_points actual_points
Alisson GK 6.2 8.83701 1
Henderson GK 5.2 7.305537
Lundstram DEF 4.9 7.169078
Gomez DEF 5.3 6.730101
Doherty DEF 6.1 7.697514 12
Pereira DEF 6.3 6.381388 2
van Dijk DEF 6.6 8.265873 1
Jorginho MID 4.9 5.325623 1
Fleck MID 5.1 7.070911
De Bruyne MID 10.7 7.586901
Richarlison MID 8.3 8.377184 2
Snodgrass MID 5.2 7.638534 1
Aubameyang FWD 10.9 5.968566
Pukki FWD 6.5 6.851487 2
Deeney FWD 6.2 6.79892 11

Let’s predict top performing players and the best possible team combination based on the predictions.

Gameweek 29: Team Selected

Gameweek 29 Team selected

As this is a Double Gameweek for Manchester City and Arsenal, the ML Algorithm has given more weightage to their players.

In the forward, Calvert-Lewin is introduced in place of Pukki as he has been quite dominating for the last few games.

In the midfield and defense, players from ManCity and Arsenal are introduced like Saka, Walker and David Luiz. Also, Ederson in the keeping position.

Gameweek 29: Points Prediction

The expected points of each player according to the algorithm is given below:

web_name position now_cost predicted_points
Ederson GK 6.0 6.843136
Krul GK 4.5 5.013684
Pereira DEF 6.3 6.843946
David Luiz DEF 5.7 7.472146
Gomez DEF 5.3 5.859144
Walker DEF 5.7 7.410472
Doherty DEF 6.1 7.447838
Richarlison MID 8.3 8.191819
De Bruyne MID 10.7 9.316884
Martial MID 7.9 5.997385
Snodgrass MID 5.2 4.995186
Saka MID 4.6 7.380514
Calvert-Lewin FWD 6.4 7.289779
Aubameyang FWD 11.0 9.965698
Deeney FWD 6.2 9.808444

Thanks for reading! See you in the next Gameweek.

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